Paris Agreement limits the temperature increase to 2°C and it is not a random number. Beyond this threshold, the climate would drastically change with extreme consequences. However, keeping temperatures at a safe level seems utopian unless we take immediate corrective actions. Zoom on a scenario similar to a disaster movie from Hollywood – except that here, we are the hero!

Climate and international negotiations

All COP conferences have the common objective of defining global policies to prevent major devastating consequences of climate change. COP 21 Paris Agreement focusses on an increase in global temperature limited to 2°C. The European Union ratified the agreement on Tuesday, 4 October 2016, after the United States, China and India (the main polluters of the planet). Nevertheless, we are still waiting for concrete implementation while climate change keeps going, showing us its harsh reality.

Experts agree that a 2°C increase is most unlikely if we keep using fossil fuels. It is more realistic to expect a 4-5°C increase. The increase in average global temperatures could thus reach 4.8°C by 2100.

^{*It is important to note that this provisional figure is recalculated in every report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): the first report dates from 1990 and mentions a maximum increase of 3°C at the end of 21st century. The 2007 report refers to an increase of 4°C…}

What would the world be like if temperatures increase by 4°C?

Climate change is the greatest challenge of our time, that has and will have environmental, social and economic impact on the world population in the short and long term.

Increase in temperature will not affect the globe uniformly, it will be much more intense in the Arctic and on the Equator leading to temperatures increase at the poles which could reach 8 to 10°C. As induced effects, we can expect expansion phenomena and melting ice causing sea level rise and therefore disappearance of coasts and islands. Climatologist Jean Jouzel warns us that a warming of 2°C could lead to 40 cm in water level rise, 3°C to 60 cm, 4-5°C to at least 80 cm and so on. The American Research Institute ‘Climate Central’ reports that many cities like New York, Mumbai, Hong Kong and Shanghai would become partially submerged in a few years. French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) has meanwhile shown that nearly 20,000 islands and archipelagos could disappear before the end of the century.

Some additional degrees each year may seem insignificant, yet it can lead to irreversible effects. The 5th IPCC report highlights the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events like heat waves, storms, cyclones. Similarly, demographic changes in lifestyle and consumption (mainly food) could occur due to weather changes – for example, desert areas could become wetlands and vice versa. Also, the IPCC estimates that 40 to 70% of species will be at increased risk of extinction if temperatures reach 3.5°C.

The climate and us

The good news? Any change is positive. Climate change offers us the opportunity to reinvent and create a better and more equitable society for all. Thus, citizen initiatives coupled with structural and regulatory changes are reachable and bring appropriate and necessary solutions.

To change and adapt our behaviors is essential, and of course small and large actions are welcome. Indeed, we often hear around us during family meals or conversations with friends that there is nothing to do on our side since it all happens in the highest political levels or during negotiations with multinationals. But, this is only partially true. Our purchasing power through our consumer choices is actually a key factor that will weigh in the balance for a more responsible society or not. If we stop funding companies involved in the social and climate injustice (social and environmental exploitation, land and air pollution, etc.), they will then have to become more respectful to meet demand and thus survive.

Also, climate change is global and our actions should incorporate a global view. In this sense, collaborative actions (sharing of knowledge and know-how) between communities would result in increasing resilience of both local and national territories. Indeed climate change has no borders.

To tackle the most important phenomenon of our time – climate change – change in behavior, and regulatory policies are essential. As Gandhi said: “We should be the change we want to see in the world”. So if we want a fairer society that respects the environment in its global vision (Nature and People), we must change our habits, which contribute directly or indirectly to the emission of greenhouse gas effects. Action to fight climate change means action for present and future generations.

Laura Anty, Environmental Writer