The COP21 starts in less than a month, and it is expected to be one of the most important climate summits of the past decades. But what exactly is the COP21? What is its history? What are the challenges? What do we expect from this summit? This is an attempt to answer some of the questions on the issues at stake at this international summit.

What is the COP21?

First of all, what is hiding behind this acronym? COP stands for Conference of the Parties. Since 1995, the UN Heads of State have been meeting once a year to discuss climate change and the measures which must be taken in response. At the origin of this annual meeting was the UN Climate Change Convention (UNCCC) adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992.

Environmental issues before the COP

Stockholm Conference 1972

Before we examine the COP, we must go back a couple of decades and look at the 1972 Stockholm Conference, which was the first international meeting to really put the environment on the global political agenda. Among the outcomes were a number of recommendations and principles, and the decision was made to establish the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

1992 Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit

With the adoption of the UNCCC, the 1992 Rio Earth Summit marked an important turning point in the history of the climate negotiations. It was at this meeting that current climate change was recognised as being caused by humans, and more specifically, as the responsibility of the industrialised countries. The Convention was ratified by 195 countries including the European Union and came into effect in 1994. The first COP took place in the following year in Berlin.

The COPs that made history

Kyoto Protocol – 1997

The 3^rd Conference of the Parties led to the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, the first legally binding international agreement aiming to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. So far, we have seen mixed results. On the one hand, undeniable progress has been made as a result, and many countries (including the European Union) have honoured their commitments. On the other hand, the protocol was only signed by 55 industrialised countries. It was never ratified by the United States, Canada and Russia withdrew from the agreement, and China – now the biggest net producer of GHGs – was not concerned about the issue at the time.

Copenhagen 2009

The COP that took place in Copenhagen in 2009 proved to be a failure. An agreement should have been taken at this summit, but due to the lack of consensus between the participating countries, the main result from this conference was a text of guidelines and possible solutions in the fight against climate change.

Durban Summit – 2011

Following the disappointing Copenhagen summit, it was in Durban that the State leaders decided on 2015 as the year in which a universal climate agreement was to be taken. Since this conference, the following COPs have been working towards the preparation of an agreement which is expected to result from the talks this December.

What are the objectives of the COP21?

The main objective of the COP21 is to reach a universally binding agreement, which will come into effect in 2020 for the 195 participating countries, to limit global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this aim, the countries must take appropriate measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions. This agreement will replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is expiring in 2020.

The second equally as important objective is the issue of financing. The Paris agreement must mobilise $100 billion per year to help enable developing countries to combat climate change while promoting fair and sustainable development. So far, only $4 billion have been paid out by certain developed countries.

How does the COP21 work?

From the 30^th of November to the 11^th of December, the 195 countries that have ratified the UNCCC and EU will come together in Paris on the Paris-Le Bourget site to negotiate a universal climate agreement.  It is important to know that the agreement has already largely been written. The Heads of State have already met several times this year to work on the agreement in preparation for the summit. Furthermore, the States were given until this October to hand in their national commitments on reducing GHG emissions. So far, 150 States have responded. During the two weeks of the conference, the negotiations will thus concentrate on the course of action, and on reaching a final agreement. From a logistical point of view, the Le Bourget site has a hosting capacity of 18 hectares, which will be divided into three areas. Around 40,000 people are expected at the talks, and some areas will be open to the public.

The three areas at the Bourget site

• The Conference Centre: The Heads of State will gather in this ‘blue area’ for the main negotiations.
• The Climate Generation areas will be dedicated to civil society, and this is where you can find representatives of the Surfrider team. This will be a space for debates, knowledge-sharing, and conviviality
• The Gallery: This area will be reserved for professionals, and it will offer an overview of some of the solutions developed by companies to tackle climate change.

Why could the COP21 be a disappointment?

Let us be honest: the overall outcome from the previous COPs has not been overwhelmingly positive. While there have been some memorable declarations, concrete advancements have been few and far between for numerous reasons. Here are some of the obstacles encountered in the process:

Principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of Nation States

The principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of Nation States takes precedence in international law. As a result, in the case of non-compliance with their commitments, sanctions against the respective States have rarely been applied. Furthermore, much remains to be done in the area of ‘climate justice’, even though isolated cases have recently been on the increase (Netherlands, Pakistan, Belgium).

The question of historical responsibility of the developed countries

The question of historical responsibility of the developed countries, as recognised in 1992, is currently being questioned, which could complicate the negotiations. Firstly, those countries that were then considered industrialised argue that the distinction between developed and developing countries no longer holds. They notably cite the example of China and India, now the first and fourth CO₂ emitters, even though they did not enter into the category of industrialised nations at the time of the Rio summit. And secondly, many of the emerging countries do not want to, or cannot, take the same binding measures as the developed nations.

It will also be very difficult to find a consensus and common ground between climate sceptic countries such as Australia, and certain island nations already strongly affected by climate change, which argue that the 2°C target is far from sufficient and that we should aim for 1.5°C instead.

The draft agreement drawn up in Bonn on the 23^rd of October that will be the basis for the negotiations is not very reassuring. It leaves the individual countries with too wide a margin of discretion when it comes to reducing GHG emissions. One of the articles in the text proposes 16 options, which implies that the measures will be more or less binding depending on the solutions. Hence, by according the States multiple choices, it will be very difficult to achieve the goal of 2°C. This is particularly true when we look at the sum of all the commitments taken to this day by 150 States to reduce GHG emissions, which add up to a climate warming threshold of 3°C in 2100 rather than the targeted 2°C.

How could the COP21 become a success and thus make history?

Scientific observations and forecasts are indeed very worrying. However, we must remain optimistic. This climate emergency urges us to be more responsible and to open our eyes to the ways of our own society.

It is time to put this human intelligence, so often evoked by Hubert Reeves in his work, to the test. We have the ability to act; now we need the courage to take this step and implement the necessary measures. We must turn our backs on the unsustainable development paradigm that has become untenable, despite the reluctance of many.

The COP21 is an opportunity to change the course of history, to pressure policy makers into taking this step. If the environmental issues are not enough to convince them, let us not forget that economic consequences will be real and large, not to forget the humanitarian impacts. Our awareness and knowledge on the impacts from climate change have never been as acute as today. We can no longer ignore the issue.

‘Healthy ocean, protected climate’

For more than a year, Surfrider has been working with members from the Ocean and Climate Platform to make the ocean’s voice heard, so that ocean-related issues are integrated in the climate talks. We will be present in Paris throughout the COP21 on the Le Bourget site, as well as at Place To B on the 5^th of December for a day dedicated to the oceans, and on the streets of Paris on the 6^th of December for a special event. We will provide you with more information on the latter over the coming weeks.

You will be able to follow our adventures at the COP21 and all the highlights of the climate talks on our website as we post regular updates in a special log.

Emilie Chavaroche, Environment Editor